Monday, September 22, 2008

Agnico-Eagle Mines' Double Bottom?

I'm a few days late to the party on this one but Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM-T) has formed a really nice double bottom formation that I hope I can still take advantage of.

I should point out that I was deeply debating today if I should invest in the HBP Gold Bull+ ETF or shares in a gold miner. I'm not thrilled about my entry price in this stock today but we'll see if the pattern fulfills itself over time.

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM-T):
Open $65.00
High $69.58
Low $65.00
Close $68.32 (+$3.32, +5.11%)

Kitco New York Spot Price for Gold:
Low $874.50
High $909.90
Close $898.30 (+$26.50, +3.04%)

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Potash Thoughts

Canadian Dollars asked for my thoughts about Potash after its nice rebound the past few days so without further adieu, here are my opinions on the stock.

I think it is a great stock to own yet the volatility (especially of late) also makes it a great shorter-term trading play so if you have the ability to trade in and out of it on a frequent basis, go right ahead and give it a try if you'd like. I know I would if I had the time!

Looking at the chart, POT is still within its current downtrend.

Depending on how you draw the upper resistance line, you can say that it's close to breaking that trend. That being said, I personally would wait for one of the following to occur before entering into a position:

  1. It closes above the downtrend line and/or fills the gap (shown by the green lines).
  2. Retests and finds support at its recent lows.
  3. Bounces of the bottom line of the downtrend.
Waiting for POT to hit one of these three price targets would be the lower-risk time to invest. One of my goals going forward is to start acting on low-risk trading opportunities or at least considering the risk/reward ratio when entering trades. I guess we'll see how that goes in future trades.

I hope that helps you Canadian Dollars!

My 10 Questions for Election Candidates

If a candidate comes knocking on my door during this election campaign, these are the ten questions I intend to ask them:

  1. What will your party actually do to reduce government spending?

  2. Will your government allow private enterprises provide health care services to the Canadian public via our existing provincial health care system?
    (i.e. Patients will not have to pay extra for these type of health care services as the the provincial health care system will cover the costs - just swipe your health card and you're free to go)

  3. What concrete efforts will your government take to protect Canada's fresh water supply?

  4. Do you think the carbon credit trading system will actually reduce air pollution?

  5. Would your government agree to be legally and monetarily binded to a "Kyoto-type" agreement on air emissions if major polluting countries like China, India, Russia, and the USA do not commit to the same reductions?

  6. How will your government tax capital gains and dividends?

  7. Will your government toughen the Young Offenders Act?

  8. How will your government ensure that judges give tough sentences to criminals (especially repeat offenders)?

  9. Does your party believe government should be providing handouts and loans to companies in any sector (including the automotive, aerospace, environmental sectors)?

  10. Does your party support income-splitting between spouses?

I recommend that you create your own list of questions about the issues that concern you so you'll be ready to ask the tough questions to any election candidates that come by your neighbourhood requesting your vote in the upcoming weeks.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Sold Royal Bank

I sold my shares in Royal Bank today. This is a temporary withdrawal of RY shares from my portfolio.

With the massive collapse in the share prices of commodity-based stocks, RY has fared fairly well of late. I suspect when the eventual commodity rally ensues, the money stowed away in financial stocks will pour into the commodities causing bank stocks to fall in value.

Monday, September 8, 2008

False report sends UAL stock on wild ride

Today's UAL Corp. (UAUA-Q) share price incident reveals how easily the stock market can react to so-called "news".

In case, you haven't heard the news, here's The Globe & Mail article on the incident:

False report sends UAL stock on wild ride

Globe and Mail Update
September 8, 2008 at 3:31 PM EDT

UAL Corp. saw its shares temporarily melt down Monday morning on false rumours that it planned to file for bankruptcy protection.

Shares in the parent of United Airlines were halted on the Nasdaq stock exchange at 11:08 a.m. (ET) after falling 76 per cent. Trade resumed at 12:30 p.m., with the shares down 8.6 per cent from their opening price to $11.25.

Stock quotes had the shares as low as 1 cent in morning trade, but terminals were updated to show an intra-day low of $3.

Morning trades would not be cancelled, the exchange said on its website.

The company said the panic was sparked by an old story from the Chicago Tribune reappearing as current news Monday morning. It was published on Dec. 10, 2002, and detailed the company's $22-million in daily losses and its bid to restructure while under bankruptcy protection.

“Reports that the company filed for bankruptcy are completely untrue and were cause by the irresponsible posting of a six-year-old Chicago Tribune story by the Florida Sun Sentinel newspaper website with the date changed,” the company said in a statement. “The story was related to United's 2002 bankruptcy filing, and United has demanded a retraction from the Sun Sentinel and is launching an investigation.”

The Chicago Tribune distanced itself from the situation Monday afternoon, with a story on its website saying internal tracking records showed that nobody at the paper had touched the original story file since 2003. The Sun-Sentinel and the Tribune are owned by the Tribune Company.

The chain said that the story was picked up early Monday from the Florida newspaper's site by an investment adviser at Miami's Income Securities. He posted the file on Bloomberg, where it would be disseminated to anyone with access to one of the data-company's terminals.

The rumours come at a difficult time for the airline industry, with most major carriers cutting routes and downsizing in a bid to survive higher fuel prices.

UAL reported a $2.7-billion (U.S.) loss in its second quarter, hurt by a $773-million increase in the price of jet fuel. Earlier this year it said it would have to cut 7,000 jobs, ground planes and reduce flights to cope with the higher costs.

Sold POT

I wish I was at home this morning to act on the quick drop in share prices after the market opened. Unfortunately work got in the way so I had to rely on my broker's telephone trading platform to get my quotes and place my sell order. I still fared pretty well compared to the closing price so I'm still somewhat happy.

This is today's chart of POT-T:

Today's Info:
High: $177.40
Low: $160.92
Close: $162.50 (-$9.850, -5.72%)

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Bought some POT today

Well, maybe not that kind of pot...

I'm talking about Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT-T, POT-N).
Hopefully this support level will provide a nice rebound in the share price...

or I might just might need some of that other pot to get me through the day :)

Today's POT-T numbers:
Open $164.02
High $165.70
Low $155.39
Close $160.370 (-$4.16, -2.53%)

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Long Weekend's Hurricane Miss

What happens when a hurricane expected to cause massive damage to the U.S. Gulf coast over the Labour Day long weekend ends up having little effect on the coast's energy infrastructure?

Tuesday's closing prices of some Horizons BetaPro ETFs:

-17.96% NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF - HNU
+18.47% NYMEX Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF - HND

-9.58% NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus ETF - HOU
+9.26% NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF - HOD

-11.57% S&P/TSX Capped Energy Bull Plus ETF - HEU
+11.48% S&P/TSX Capped Energy Bear Plus ETF - HED

Monday, September 1, 2008

Genius Can't Be Scheduled

With Labour Day here, summer has come to its unofficial end and traders should be coming back into the market which should lead to some interesting times in the weeks ahead. The summer months haven't been too friendly for me in terms of my investments so hopefully things will change very shortly to meet my year-end financial goals. I guess it's time to take a closer look at my charts and spot any new trends that might be emerging.

In the meantime, here's Sunday's Dilbert comic that nicely highlights my thoughts on the ridiculous notion of the 9-to-5 workday regiment employers still insist on despite the amount of downtime in the office.